Famous trader: The loss supply of long-term Bitcoin holders has exceeded that during the FTX collapse

Renowned trader Killa stated that during the last Bitcoin bull market, about 80% of the cycle top indicators were never triggered, and similar situations may occur with future bottom indicators, so one should not mechanically rely on historical signals to determine market bottoms. He pointed out that the supply of long-term holders currently in a loss state has exceeded the levels during the FTX collapse and is approaching the levels seen during the 2018 bear market.

Bitcoin's realized price is currently around $50,000, and in past cycles, the price has tested the realized price of long-term holders, so there is still a possibility of returning to that area. However, Killa indicated that it should not be assumed that Bitcoin will necessarily fall back to this level. Many top indicators in the last cycle failed to trigger, and some bottom indicators may also fail in the future. In any case, the current level of market losses is similar to that during the FTX incident and the 2018 bear market.