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BTC $80,742.19 -0.05%
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BNB $745.07 +0.85%
XRP $1.31 +1.42%
SOL $102.42 -0.11%
TRX $0.3288 -0.25%
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HYPE $76.68 -0.57%
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SUI $0.9350 -2.68%
XLM $0.1714 -0.85%
ZEC $1,215.44 +3.77%
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AMZN $248.52 -0.15%
GOOGL $320.94 -0.28%
MSFT $523.91 -0.16%
META $642.39 +0.09%
NVDA $212.65 +0.54%
TSLA $372.17 +0.02%
SNDK $1,247.97 +0.40%
INTC $87.14 +0.37%
SPCX $148.09 +0.10%
MU $892.58 +0.82%
AMD $521.72 +0.61%

数据:BTC 触及关键支撑位,波动率降低但防御性仓位仍占主导

2026-06-19 17:41:01

ChainCatcher 消息,glassnode 发文表示,比特币(BTC)在重新测试 2 月低点后回落至重要支撑区域。期权市场数据显示,尽管价格接近关键水平,但隐含波动率已从近期高点明显回落,1 周隐含波动率从约 60% 降至 35%,整体波动率曲线同步下移,市场对未来不确定性的定价明显降温。

同时,25Δ偏度也从抛售期间的极端水平回落,短期限保护需求有所正常化,显示恐慌性对冲情绪正在减弱。不过,结构性防御仓位仍占主导。数据显示,短期限期权仍偏向下行保护,近一周看空期权成交占比约 28%,显著高于看多期权买入比例(24.1%)。

同时,1 个月隐含波动率已低于实际波动率,市场出现“隐含波动率低估现实波动”的情况。在 62,000 美元附近存在显著短 Gamma 集中区(约 18 亿美元规模),若价格进一步下探可能加速波动放大,而在 60,000 美元附近则存在一定长 Gamma 缓冲区。整体来看,尽管波动率降温,但市场仍处于偏防御的仓位结构之中。

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