BTC $81,031.47 -0.27%
ETH $2,383.21 -0.06%
BNB $738.65 +1.13%
XRP $1.29 -1.12%
SOL $102.67 -0.79%
TRX $0.3298 +0.47%
DOGE $0.0785 -0.27%
ADA $0.2108 -0.44%
BCH $281.89 +2.62%
LINK $11.82 -1.08%
HYPE $77.05 -0.55%
AAVE $144.24 -1.57%
SUI $0.9597 -1.21%
XLM $0.1733 -1.05%
ZEC $1,182.96 -2.94%
AAPL $347.90 -0.28%
AMZN $249.11 -0.78%
GOOGL $321.70 -0.77%
MSFT $525.04 +0.48%
META $641.41 -0.68%
NVDA $211.51 -0.42%
TSLA $372.39 -0.34%
SNDK $1,242.24 +0.74%
INTC $86.80 +2.66%
SPCX $147.91 +1.14%
MU $882.38 +4.47%
AMD $518.14 +2.60%
BTC $81,031.47 -0.27%
ETH $2,383.21 -0.06%
BNB $738.65 +1.13%
XRP $1.29 -1.12%
SOL $102.67 -0.79%
TRX $0.3298 +0.47%
DOGE $0.0785 -0.27%
ADA $0.2108 -0.44%
BCH $281.89 +2.62%
LINK $11.82 -1.08%
HYPE $77.05 -0.55%
AAVE $144.24 -1.57%
SUI $0.9597 -1.21%
XLM $0.1733 -1.05%
ZEC $1,182.96 -2.94%
AAPL $347.90 -0.28%
AMZN $249.11 -0.78%
GOOGL $321.70 -0.77%
MSFT $525.04 +0.48%
META $641.41 -0.68%
NVDA $211.51 -0.42%
TSLA $372.39 -0.34%
SNDK $1,242.24 +0.74%
INTC $86.80 +2.66%
SPCX $147.91 +1.14%
MU $882.38 +4.47%
AMD $518.14 +2.60%

分析:比特币 6 至 7 万美元为深熊价格区间,50% 筹码将处于浮亏

2025-11-20 17:33:38

ChainCatcher 消息,链上数据分析师 Murphy 表示,比特币 PSIP(盈利供应百分比)用于观察市场乐观和恐慌程度,7 日均值已低于 70%。历史经验表明,过往周期牛转熊的首次下跌通常触及此位置,然后出现情绪极端受压后的反弹。每当 PSIP 低于 50% 时,将迎来大周期的深熊时刻,同时也是性价比最高,最值得买入的价格区间。

当前 BTC 价格维持在 9.2 万美元,UPPD 数据显示 670 万枚 BTC 处于浮亏状态,占总流通的 33%。假设低位筹码都不再卖出,那么当价格跌至 59,000 美元时,将出现 974.4 万枚 BTC 变为套牢筹码,此时 PSIP 正好为 50% 左右。因 PSIP 持续处于动态,作为静态数值评估仅代表大致范围,根据经验若当 BTC 进入 6 至 7 万美元区间内,PSIP 将大概率降至 50% 以下,即进入深熊阶段。

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