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Standard Chartered Bank: Maintains Bitcoin target price of $100,000, Strategy of selling coins is not a worsening risk

According to The Block, Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its price prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026. The recent market decline triggered by movements related to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a failure of the strategic adjustments to be fully understood by the market.Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the narrative of the company "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy seems to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. Whether this change can be clearly communicated will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, accounting for over 4% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoins. Between 2020 and mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (market value/Bitcoin asset value) has remained above 1, allowing the company to finance Bitcoin purchases through stock issuance and achieve shareholder value growth.The commitment to "never sell Bitcoin" is the core of this model gaining market recognition. However, as the current mNAV approaches 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening. Kendrick believes that Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool," meaning it holds Bitcoin as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock STRC.STRC currently has a scale of about $10 billion, making it the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, with an annualized dividend yield of 12%, paid in cash every half month, and its price maintained around the $100 par value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism. Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading at about $90, while Strategy has a dollar reserve of about $2.55 billion for paying dividends, which can cover approximately 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that the policy adjustment allowing the sale of Bitcoin does not necessarily mean the company will continue to sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He likened this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "take action no matter what": restoring market confidence alone may mean that actual intervention might not occur at all.

Strategy launches a digital credit capital framework, establishes a BTC monetization plan, and two $1 billion repurchase plans

According to the 8-K document submitted to the SEC by Strategy, the company announced the launch of a digital credit capital framework, which includes five core components: dollar reserve policy, adjustment of STRC dividend policy, preferred stock repurchase plan, common stock repurchase plan, and BTC monetization plan.Under the dollar reserve policy, the reserve can only be used to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest, and management must maintain a reserve sufficient to cover expected dividends and interest expenses for at least the next 12 months. As of June 28, the dollar reserve balance was $2.55 billion.Regarding the STRC dividend, the company will dynamically assess the dividend rate on a monthly basis, considering factors such as trading price, market yield, credit spread, and Bitcoin price volatility, and will not increase the dividend solely because the STRC trading price is below par value. The company also announced an increase in the annualized dividend rate for STRC to 12% from the previous level, effective July 1.In terms of the repurchase plan, the company has established two repurchase authorizations of $1 billion each, to repurchase preferred stocks such as STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK, and Class A common stock, with STRC being the primary target of the preferred stock repurchase plan. Neither of the repurchase plans will utilize dollar reserve funds.In addition, the company's board of directors has authorized the BTC monetization plan, allowing the company to raise up to $1.25 billion by selling Bitcoin, to supplement the dollar reserve, pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or fund the aforementioned repurchase plans.
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